Comparison Of ARIMA And Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters Methods For Forecasting CPI In The Tegal City, Central Java

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an essential economic index that shows the level of prices for goods and services consumed by public in a certain period specific region so forecasting ICP needed to find out pattern movement area. purpose this study determine rate CPI from July 2021 June 2022 comparing two methods, i.e., ARIMA Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters. data used Tegal City January 2014 - 2021, with year 2018 as base equals 100 time series 90 observations. backcasting technique was implemented figures – December 2019 (Base Year 2012=100) adjust new Base following on Classification Individual Consumption According Purpose (COICOP). results methods show Holt-Winters method has minor Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value, which 0.281 compared MAPE value 0.311. Hence, Additive chosen best model